European retail trends driving 2023

Increase your chances of making it into consumers’ baskets this year: explore Europe’s latest FMCG shopper behavior
Uncover today’s range of FMCG shoppers, what they’re buying, and why. Combining insights from our continuous Consumer Panels and our Behavior Change surveys, we share the latest shopper sentiment, spending intentions, and motivations that impact retail across Europe in the upcoming months.
01
Three ‘crisis types’:
Affected, Concerned and Resistant
Over 60% of FMCG shoppers are already in, or feel close to, a serious budget squeeze
Affected and Concerned shoppers are rising across most of the 15 EU countries tracked — especially in Western Europe in the last half of 2022.
Source: GfK Behavior Change Nov. ‘22 EU-15 n=9,834 & April ‘22 n=7,855
?
Concerned
44%
CEE
49%
WSE
39%
Index 105
!
Affected
18%
CEE
19%
WSE
18%
Resistant
38%
CEE
32%
WSE
44%
Index 96
Crisis
types
Struggling financially or slight worry about job or not working
Highly afraid of losing job or currently unemployed
Financially comfortable
Not/only slightly worried about job or not working
02
Rational shopping is intensifying
Categories will find it harder to attract basket share, as coping and balancing behaviours intensify and expand.
93
%
have changed their shopping behaviour due to inflation

55

%
“It’s not a choice for me, I must save what I can, including on daily needs”
Top money-saving activities (EU15)
Country doing it most
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Buy more frozen / canned food instead of fresh
Eat more at home instead of in restaurants
of shoppers changing behavior
Avoid buying prepared / RTE components
Cook less fancy / elaborate meals
Buy in bulk to get better prices
Buy smaller products / portions to avoid waste
Entertain less in home
Switch to energy saving programs, eg. low temp.
Buy less food / drinks on the go
Take shorter / less showers and baths
Plan recipes according to budget
Use home appliances less to save energy
Shop around in different stores
Buy more store owned / discounter brands
Changes in how people will shop: coping behaviours intensify
Biggest gap between struggling and comfortable:
▪ Treating oneself
▪ Keeping basket low
check prices
search for / wait for promotions
try to keep total basket amount low
shift from premium brands to cheaper ones
use up leftovers / cut down food waste
do home cooking
switch retailers to cheaper ones
avoid certain brands
stockpile
buy local / regional / national
60​
54​
48​
45​
45​
43​
43​
35​
31​
26​
% will do (much) more
buy for others
treat myself with something special
39
37​

% will do (much) less

03
Categories most at risk
Coping strategies differ per category, but two stand out as growing across all of them:
+26
%
Not buying any longer
+8
%
Buy cheaper products
Top 5 categories: `I worry about rising prices and will change my behavior`
Alcoholic drinks
50
%
Confectionery
48
%
Cosmetics
42
%
Frozen food
35
%
Meat, fish
31
%

Coping behaviors by category

buy cheaper products
buy products on offer
buy fewer
not buying them any longer
try to buy elsewhere
stockpile at lowest price
other
Out-of-home hit hardest by consumers cutting back
Top 5 (out of 14)
Net intention next 6 months
% shoppers (much) more -/- (much) less
Restaurants / Bars
-54
%
Clothes
-48
%
Gifts / Decor
-46
%
Takeaway / Delivery
-46
%
Entertainment
-45
%
Source: GfK, Behavior Change Nov. ‘22 EU-15 n=9,834
04
Major spend differences: Comfortable vs Struggling

Struggling consumers are cutting spend on wellbeing areas (sports and beauty), and planning meals in advance to fit their budget — with a desire for healthy ingredients.

Biggest differences in spend: comfortable vs struggling
1
Holidays
2
Restaurants / Bars
3
Entertainment
4
Sports / Gym
5
Beauty / Lifestyle
Plan recipes
according to budget
#12 out of 14
coping behaviors
The comfortable
16
%
Plan recipes
according to budget
#12 out of 14
coping behaviors
The struggling
46
%
Healthy convenience resonates strongly with struggling consumers while eco-shopping remains high priority with those feeling comfortable
Source: GfK, Behavior Change Nov. ‘22 EU-15 n=9,834 & April ‘22 n=7,855
Premium products
Corporate responsibility
Carbon neutral products
Personalized products
Organic product
Inflation
Personalized promotions
Natural ingredients
Healthy ingredients
Time-saving solutions
Comfortable
Struggling
05
Where are FMCG consumers shopping?
Store choice is increasingly driven by rational factors, rather than emotional
Rising top 5
1
Self –check out
2
Loyalty card
3
Private labels
4
Attractive promotions
5
Proximity
Declining top 5
1
Well-known brands
2
Quick service
3
Healthy choices
4
Friendly staff
5
High quality products

Online share for FMCG has decelerated after the COVID-led bump, but shoppers still appreciate saving aspects of online shopping

Sweden
Netherlands
Denmark
Russia
Belgium
Czech Republic
Germany
Italy
Austria
Hungary
Poland
Slovakia
Romania
Ukraine
Bulgaria
Croatia
Serbia
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
MAT sept ´22
MAT oct ´21

Online shoppers’ net sentiment

When shopping online.... (top2 -/- bottom2)

Online shoppers’ net sentiment
Good overview of
comparative prices
Makes it easy to
 buy promotions
Helpful to control
 total spend
Might stop because
 of delivery costs

I feel I spend more

than in a regular store

Hard Discount is the only channel type where shoppers overall plan to increase their shopping activity over the next 6 months

Net shopping intention by channel - next 6 months | % shoppers planning (much) more - (much) less activity

Hard Discount
+15
Super market
-2
Hyper market
-3
Weekly market
-4
Online
-8
Drug stores
-16
Convenience
-18
Deli /
specialty
-18
06
Getting your message to stand out
Emotional messages backed by genuine activity can cut through the skepticism, especially with Gen Z and Millennials
Source: GfK Purpose Impact monitor

Clarity of purpose messages, by generation (%)

Emotional reactions to purpose ads, by generation (%)

07
5 Ways to increase your chances of making it into consumers’ baskets in 2023
#1
Strategize for the struggling

Personalize promotions to drive top end of a lower range "premium substitutions" for "struggling" consumers, who are increasing in numbers and behavior intensity.

#2
Be incremental to your category
Be indispensable in your category. Help bring shoppers back to the category and show your brand’s additional worth. Do this by following #3 and #4.
#3
Saving gets personal(ized)
Personalize savings. Show you understand your target audiences’ specific needs. Change your tactics and promotions to support their new motivations.
#4
Be where your shopper is

Shopping around is back, so it’s critical that your products are present wherever your target audience is now shopping.

#5
Lead with the heart
Connect through genuine transformational messaging that connects emotionally with younger shoppers, even though rationality drives shoppers’ behavior overall.

Want more detail? In our latest Behavior Change white paper, our experts explain the big trends being seen and deep-dive into Ukraine, Romania, Germany and the Nordics (Sweden and Denmark).

Read our latest Behavior Change white paper

European retail trends driving 2023

Increase your chances of making it into consumers’ baskets this year: explore Europe’s latest FMCG shopper behavior
Uncover today’s range of FMCG shoppers, what they’re buying, and why. Combining insights from our continuous Consumer Panels and our Behavior Change surveys, we share the latest shopper sentiment, spending intentions, and motivations that impact retail across Europe in the upcoming months.
01
Three ‘crisis types’:
Affected, Concerned and Resistant
Over 60% of FMCG shoppers are already in, or feel close to, a serious budget squeeze
Affected and Concerned shoppers are rising across most of the 15 EU countries tracked — especially in Western Europe in the last half of 2022.
Source: GfK Behavior Change Nov. ‘22 EU-15 n=9,834 & April ‘22 n=7,855
?
Concerned
44%
CEE
49%
WSE
39%
Index 105
!
Affected
18%
CEE
19%
WSE
18%
Resistant
38%
CEE
32%
WSE
44%
Index 96
Crisis
types
Struggling financially or slight worry about job or not working
Highly afraid of losing job or currently unemployed
Financially comfortable
Not/only slightly worried about job or not working
02
Rational shopping is intensifying
Categories will find it harder to attract basket share, as coping and balancing behaviours intensify and expand.
93
%
have changed their shopping behaviour due to inflation

55

%
“It’s not a choice for me, I must save what I can, including on daily needs”
Top money-saving activities (EU15)
Country doing it most
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Buy more frozen / canned food instead of fresh
Eat more at home instead of in restaurants
of shoppers changing behavior
Avoid buying prepared / RTE components
Cook less fancy / elaborate meals
Buy in bulk to get better prices
Buy smaller products / portions to avoid waste
Entertain less in home
Switch to energy saving programs, eg. low temp.
Buy less food / drinks on the go
Take shorter / less showers and baths
Plan recipes according to budget
Use home appliances less to save energy
Shop around in different stores
Buy more store owned / discounter brands
Changes in how people will shop: coping behaviours intensify
Biggest gap between struggling and comfortable:
▪ Treating oneself
▪ Keeping basket low
check prices
search for / wait for promotions
try to keep total basket amount low
shift from premium brands to cheaper ones
use up leftovers / cut down food waste
do home cooking
switch retailers to cheaper ones
avoid certain brands
stockpile
buy local / regional / national
60​
54​
48​
45​
45​
43​
43​
35​
31​
26​
% will do (much) more
buy for others
treat myself with something special
39
37​

% will do (much) less

03
Categories most at risk
Coping strategies differ per category, but two stand out as growing across all of them:
+26
%
Not buying any longer
+8
%
Buy cheaper products
Top 5 categories: `I worry about rising prices and will change my behavior`
Alcoholic drinks
50
%
Confectionery
48
%
Cosmetics
42
%
Frozen food
35
%
Meat, fish
31
%

Coping behaviors by category

buy cheaper products
buy products on offer
buy fewer
not buying them any longer
try to buy elsewhere
stockpile at lowest price
other
Out-of-home hit hardest by consumers cutting back
Top 5 (out of 14)
Net intention next 6 months
% shoppers (much) more -/- (much) less
Restaurants / Bars
-54
%
Clothes
-48
%
Gifts / Decor
-46
%
Takeaway / Delivery
-46
%
Entertainment
-45
%
Source: GfK, Behavior Change Nov. ‘22 EU-15 n=9,834
04
Major spend differences: Comfortable vs Struggling

Struggling consumers are cutting spend on wellbeing areas (sports and beauty), and planning meals in advance to fit their budget — with a desire for healthy ingredients.

Biggest differences in spend: comfortable vs struggling
1
Holidays
2
Restaurants / Bars
3
Entertainment
4
Sports / Gym
5
Beauty / Lifestyle
Plan recipes
according to budget
#12 out of 14
coping behaviors
The comfortable
16
%
Plan recipes
according to budget
#12 out of 14
coping behaviors
The struggling
46
%
Healthy convenience resonates strongly with struggling consumers while eco-shopping remains high priority with those feeling comfortable
Source: GfK, Behavior Change Nov. ‘22 EU-15 n=9,834 & April ‘22 n=7,855
Premium products
Corporate responsibility
Carbon neutral products
Personalized products
Organic product
Inflation
Personalized promotions
Natural ingredients
Healthy ingredients
Time-saving solutions
Comfortable
Struggling
05
Where are FMCG consumers shopping?
Store choice is increasingly driven by rational factors, rather than emotional
Rising top 5
1
Self –check out
2
Loyalty card
3
Private labels
4
Attractive promotions
5
Proximity
Declining top 5
1
Well-known brands
2
Quick service
3
Healthy choices
4
Friendly staff
5
High quality products

Online share for FMCG has decelerated after the COVID-led bump, but shoppers still appreciate saving aspects of online shopping

Sweden
Netherlands
Denmark
Russia
Belgium
Czech Republic
Germany
Italy
Austria
Hungary
Poland
Slovakia
Romania
Ukraine
Bulgaria
Croatia
Serbia
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
MAT sept ´22
MAT oct ´21

Online shoppers’ net sentiment

When shopping online.... (top2 -/- bottom2)

Online shoppers’ net sentiment
Good overview of
comparative prices
Makes it easy to
 buy promotions
Helpful to control
 total spend
Might stop because
 of delivery costs

I feel I spend more

than in a regular store

Hard Discount is the only channel type where shoppers overall plan to increase their shopping activity over the next 6 months

Net shopping intention by channel - next 6 months | % shoppers planning (much) more - (much) less activity

Hard Discount
+15
Super market
-2
Hyper market
-3
Weekly market
-4
Online
-8
Drug stores
-16
Convenience
-18
Deli /
specialty
-18
06
Getting your message to stand out
Emotional messages backed by genuine activity can cut through the skepticism, especially with Gen Z and Millennials
Source: GfK Purpose Impact monitor

Clarity of purpose messages, by generation (%)

Emotional reactions to purpose ads, by generation (%)

07
5 Ways to increase your chances of making it into consumers’ baskets in 2023
#1
Strategize for the struggling

Personalize promotions to drive top end of a lower range "premium substitutions" for "struggling" consumers, who are increasing in numbers and behavior intensity.

#2
Be incremental to your category
Be indispensable in your category. Help bring shoppers back to the category and show your brand’s additional worth. Do this by following #3 and #4.
#3
Saving gets personal(ized)
Personalize savings. Show you understand your target audiences’ specific needs. Change your tactics and promotions to support their new motivations.
#4
Be where your shopper is

Shopping around is back, so it’s critical that your products are present wherever your target audience is now shopping.

#5
Lead with the heart
Connect through genuine transformational messaging that connects emotionally with younger shoppers, even though rationality drives shoppers’ behavior overall.

Want more detail? In our latest Behavior Change white paper, our experts explain the big trends being seen and deep-dive into Ukraine, Romania, Germany and the Nordics (Sweden and Denmark).

Read our latest Behavior Change white paper